According to Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal of making India a high-income country by 2047 is unlikely. However, Wolf believes India could achieve upper middle-income status and become a superpower by mid-century.

Wolf also said the obstacles to the necessary progress in India lie “overwhelmingly in domestic institutions, policies and politics”.

“Inclusive and rapid growth on the desired scale will require sustained openness, but also huge investments in physical and human capital. Openness remains a handmaiden of economic progress,” he added.

During a lecture titled “What Would It Take for India to Become a Developed Country by 2047,” organized by CUTS, Martin Wolf remarked, “Is Prime Minister Modi’s goal of making India a high-income country by 2047 plausible or even feasible? Probably not. However, India is still likely to become a superpower by mid-century. Size matters!”

Referencing PM Modi’s objective of transforming India into a developed country by 2047, Wolf noted that while India aims to become a high-income country, achieving this is unlikely. “But it should become an upper middle-income country by then. It would then also become a superpower,” he said.

He highlighted that the current slow-growing, shock-prone, and fragile global environment will make this rise challenging. “India will need to work hard to use its influence to shape the world in a favorable direction and also adapt to exploit the opportunities it has,” he said. In his 2023 Independence Day speech, PM Modi had declared that India would be a developed country by 2047, marking 100 years of independence.

While acknowledging that India can still benefit from global opportunities, Wolf emphasized that India can establish useful and productive economic relations with all sides. “It can, if it tries, partially replace China as a competitive global supplier of goods and services. It can become a magnet for foreign direct investment. It can (and must) be a positive influence on global discussions,” he said.

Wolf emphasized that India must play a positive role in global discussions. He stated that India has significant assets to leverage in shaping the world to its advantage. He added that India is an obvious “plus one” in a “China plus one” strategy, and even more advantageous in a “any country but China” scenario.

He said India might be tempted by aggressive industrial policies and self sufficiency but it must resist these temptations. “Today, the opportunity increasingly lies in services, where India has a strong comparative advantage India is big enough to shape the world, while it also tries to reshape the domestic economy,” he said.